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Tuesday, April 3, 2012

Bill Clinton: Obama can argue he steadied economy

File - In this July 2, 2007 file photo, vehicles enter the Little Rock National Airport in Little Rock, Ark. The Little Rock Municipal Airport Commission has voted unanimously to change the name of the Little Rock National Airport in honor of former President Bill Clinton and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. ?I?m pleased with the action today and the airport will immediately now operate under the name of Bill and Hillary Clinton National Airport,? said Commission Chairman Jim Dailey. (AP Photo/Mike Wintroath, File)

WASHINGTON (AP) ? Former President Bill Clinton says he believes President Barack Obama can win re-election if he can persuade voters he steadied a shaky economy.

Clinton tells ABC's "Good Morning America" he believes likely Republican nominee Mitt Romney will have a difficult time reconciling positions he's taken during the primary season with what he'll say against Obama in the fall.

Clinton was asked if Obama can argue that Americans are better off than they were four years ago, as he argued in winning re-election in 1996.

He replies that if Obama can't make that case, "it is only because of the financial collapse that occurred in September 2008" before Obama took office.

Clinton says Obama can assert that "we put a floor under the recession and kept it from becoming a depression."

Associated Press

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Monday, April 2, 2012

Coach Scott likes what he sees out of the RBS

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Legislators vote to repay schools with reserves (Star Tribune)

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Website allows a whole new look at the Gulf oil spill (Turner)

?The number: $379,921,840.

The reason it's interesting: That's the amount of money the federal government has obligated, thus far, to Gulf oil spill contracts, according to usaspending.gov.

Now, as with all conversations about federal spending, the number needs a little context.

For example, according to the same website, the federal government obligated itself to almost $3.19 billion in "grants" to the Alabama Medicaid Agency in the 2011 fiscal year alone.

It appears that federal contracts worth in excess of $10.6 billion have been executed with Alabama entities this fiscal year alone. In Mississippi, the number is almost $6.4 billion during the same period.

But back to our oil spill contracts.

The pace of spending has fallen -- from a little over $170 million in 2010 to just under $158 million in 2011 to just more than $51 million so far this year.

It shouldn't surprise anyone that the lion's share of the money -- $139.5 million, or almost 37 percent -- was spent in Louisiana. More startling, perhaps, is that more money was spent in Colorado ($28.2 million, or 7.42 percent) than in either Mississippi ($4 million, or 1.07 percent) or Alabama ($10.8 million, or 2.84 percent).

For what it's worth, Boulder-based Stratus Consulting Inc. was the big winner there. Among its several contracts was one for just over $10 million for "ongoing assessment on human use impacts from Deepwater Horizon oil spill." The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration used Stratus for that work, plus such services as "emergency support" during the spill and an "economic valuation" project.

It appears that litigation, or at least preparing for it, is a major Deepwater Horizon expense.

The firm that's gotten the largest number of contracts, Arlington, Va.-based CACI International Inc., offers "automated litigation support services" to the Department of Justice. It scored 40 contracts worth in excess of $38 million.

Louisiana State University has been the recipient of 21 contracts worth $1,418,273, with oil sampling and waterfowl studies among its jobs.

Almost $4 million of the money went for transportation and travel, which included lodging.

Food (and housekeeping) ate up another $2 million-plus, with $187,000 of that to "Chef Rob" in Mobile.

Of the 1,454 contracts, 518 were awarded after "full and open competition," while in 395 there was no competition at all.

So visit www.usaspending.gov. The website allows slicing and dicing of that $379,921,840 in just about every way imaginable. A few minutes there, and you'll see the spill in a whole new light.

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Sunday, April 1, 2012

U.S. Dollar Ready To Strengthen Against Commodity Currencies And Oil

The trends in the AUDUSD, USDCAD and oil, which began in October 2011, seem to be at a crossroad. The USD appears to have position to break the trend and strengthen against the commodity related currencies and oil. I also think oil's behavior of failing to press back higher through the broken 3 year trend in Chart 3 is interesting. It's possible that the bullish trend is broken, particularly in the short-term.

Chart 1 (blue line = parity)
1 AUD would buy less US Dollar -> US Dollar strengthens

The Aussie economy is tied heavily to China through commodity trade. As the Chinese economy slows, or at least isn't accelerating as fast, the Aussie will weaken. In the above chart, the price action is carrying momentum down through the trend line, signifying USD appreciation.

Chart 2 (blue line = parity)
1 USD would buy more CAD -> US Dollar strengthens

The Loonie's strength is based on commodity exports similar to the Aussie, although it is more closely linked with oil. As long as the USD strengthens against oil (looked at next) the price action will be able to break higher through the trend line.

The final two charts look directly at oil, which has broken long-term and short-term bullish trends recently. The US Dollar will "strengthen" against oil as the price per barrel moves lower. Basically, $1 will buy a higher percentage of 1 barrel of oil as the price moves down. Take note of the broken 3-year bullish trend which began in 2009 in Chart 3. The price action is looked at more closely in Chart 4, which shows the former 3-year trend providing resistance and the recent bullish trend breaking.

Chart 3 (blue line = $100/barrel)

Chart 4 (blue line = $100/barrel)

I expect the USD to strengthen in the short term against commodity currencies and oil.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

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